Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Skyrocketing lumber prices in the USA (180%+ increase in one year) and the reasons why.

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Skyrocketing lumber prices in the USA (180%+ increase in one year) and the reasons why.

    America is running short of wood (msn.com)

    Here is an excerpt from the article:

    Why there’s a shortage of wood

    Lumber has one aspect of its story in common with other sectors of the pandemic economy, particularly manufacturing. Early in 2020, sawmills first ground to a halt, anticipating a crash in demand. Then it turned out that people still wanted wood—to repair or renovate their homes during lockdown, or to build new homes outside cities. Interest rates were, and continue to be, low; it was a good time to finance and construct new houses.

    So the sawmills started up again around July. “But it was difficult to ramp up,” Jannke says. “You’re running your mill, someone tests positive, you have to shut down and test and so on. Maybe people have to quarantine, and you lose a portion of your workforce.”

    But the shortfall in supply is also part of an older saga, involving Dendroctonus ponderosae: the mountain pine beetle, a quarter-inch insect with a shiny black exoskeleton. The beetle has been in Canadian forests for decades, but they’re usually kept in check by cold winters, said Kevin Mason, managing director of ERA Forest Products Research, a Montreal-based research company.

    But in the late 1990s, the beetles started to live longer and reproduce quicker—an outcome, scientists believe, of a warming climate. They swarmed through the pines of British Columbia, attacking more than 44 million acres of forest, an area four times the size of Switzerland. “You could go up in an airplane above British Columbia and see the damage,” Mason said. “I’m a little color-blind, but others could see it better than me. The dead pines had a red tinge to them, so you could fly an hour and just see this red kill.”
    sigpic
    In the middle of MinneSTUDEa.

  • #2
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOR38552MJA
    Bill Foy
    1000 Islands, Ontario
    1953 Starlight Coupe

    Comment


    • #3
      Yes, there's a shortage of dimensional and engineered wood products.

      Yes, there's a shortage of native-born skilled and unskilled labor. Undocumented workers keep wages low and most of today's young prefer keyboards to hammers.

      Yes, 2.5%-3% mortgages are inflating another every-ten-years housing bubble. We haven't paid the trillion-dollar damage from the last one, but elected officials keep causing the next one.

      Yes, the 21% increase in home prices in our frozen-ass-end-of-nowhere is being driven by those leaving major metro areas and who believe working from home is going to continue in the future. Maybe; maybe not.

      jack vines
      PackardV8

      Comment


      • #4
        Whatever the reasons, it happens at a bad time for me. I am ready to break ground on a new building for the collector car portion of my business. But prices of both steel and lumber have risen so much I have to decide: wait or go forward? Right now it would mean a 20-30% increase in cost. Some say the current super-low interest rates make up for it. I'm still deciding. One anecdote: the material supplier called me mid-Feb. and told me steel would increase on March 1, and recommended buying the steel then to avoid the increase. I didn't do it, because I am unsure of whether to go ahead or not. So on March 1, my steel package jumped from $16,000 to $19,000 in one day... and another increase due this week. I just don't know.

        One thing I do is watch lumber futures, usually quoted per thousand board feet. A year ago the price was about $300 per. Last month it topped $1000. It's hard to decide when to wait or go.

        Lumber Price: Latest Futures Prices, Charts & Market News | Nasdaq
        Proud NON-CASO

        I do not prize the word "cheap." It is not a badge of honor...it is a symbol of despair. ~ William McKinley

        If it is decreed that I should go down, then let me go down linked with the truth - let me die in the advocacy of what is just and right.- Lincoln

        GOD BLESS AMERICA

        Ephesians 6:10-17
        Romans 15:13
        Deuteronomy 31:6
        Proverbs 28:1

        Illegitimi non carborundum

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Bob Andrews View Post
          Whatever the reasons, it happens at a bad time for me. I am ready to break ground on a new building for the collector car portion of my business. But prices of both steel and lumber have risen so much I have to decide: wait or go forward? Right now it would mean a 20-30% increase in cost. Some say the current super-low interest rates make up for it. I'm still deciding. <snip>
          If you wait long enough Bams, you won't ever have to worry about it.
          My motto has always been. Buy it now, and buy it at the best price you can get. And soldier on.
          Shoot, I bought my second house with a 13.9% morgage. So what? If I had waited until the interest rates had dropped, the house would have been $50k more. Bite the bullet and go. Saying it is a bad time is just an excuse not to do something,
          You have to be doing something to do something wrong...and vice versa.
          Just an opinion based on a lifetime of wins and losses. When I'm dead that won't mean crap.
          Jeff



          HTIH (Hope The Info Helps)

          Jeff


          Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please. Mark Twain



          Note: SDC# 070190 (and earlier...)

          Comment


          • #6
            I'm getting ready to replace some rotted deck boards and am buying the decking material a little at a time so as not to break my budget each month. I'll get the work done, and it will likely cost much more than in the past, but my monthly budget won't know the difference and I won't fall through my deck.
            Ed Sallia
            Dundee, OR

            Sol Lucet Omnibus

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by DEEPNHOCK View Post

              If you wait long enough Bams, you won't ever have to worry about it.
              My motto has always been. Buy it now, and buy it at the best price you can get. And soldier on.
              Shoot, I bought my second house with a 13.9% morgage. So what? If I had waited until the interest rates had dropped, the house would have been $50k more. Bite the bullet and go. Saying it is a bad time is just an excuse not to do something,
              You have to be doing something to do something wrong...and vice versa.
              Just an opinion based on a lifetime of wins and losses. When I'm dead that won't mean crap.
              Jeff


              The difference is, you can always refinance a high interest rate when it inevitably comes down, but $34.99 paid for an $8 sheet of OSB will always be $34.99. I wish interest rates were the problem. Some say that in a year interest rates will skyrocket, and supplies will plummet.

              In the end, it's not as simple as you say. A business item is different from a home. The numbers have to work, or a smart businessman doesn't buy.

              The next few weeks of watching, and prayer, will make my decision.
              Proud NON-CASO

              I do not prize the word "cheap." It is not a badge of honor...it is a symbol of despair. ~ William McKinley

              If it is decreed that I should go down, then let me go down linked with the truth - let me die in the advocacy of what is just and right.- Lincoln

              GOD BLESS AMERICA

              Ephesians 6:10-17
              Romans 15:13
              Deuteronomy 31:6
              Proverbs 28:1

              Illegitimi non carborundum

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Bob Andrews View Post
                <snip>
                In the end, it's not as simple as you say. A business item is different from a home. The numbers have to work, or a smart businessman doesn't buy.
                The next few weeks of watching, and prayer, will make my decision.
                OK. I used the home as a buying and selling analogy.
                You are on your own with your business decision.
                Prayer will make you feel better, I guess.
                Good luck.

                HTIH (Hope The Info Helps)

                Jeff


                Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please. Mark Twain



                Note: SDC# 070190 (and earlier...)

                Comment


                • #9
                  ...then there is the 24% duty imposed on Canadian Lumber by the previous administration. You can look at it as protecting a US industry, but then you can't complain about the price.
                  Dick Steinkamp
                  Bellingham, WA

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Bob,
                    The price of steel and wood aren’t going to come down in price. I consider the cost of repairs from wind, cold, heat, rain and snow to my collection to base the value of building more shop space and when to build. It sounds like your building is business related, so you will have a 30% increase in expense write offs. Maybe you could have a barn raising party.
                    1963 Studebaker GT Hawk R1 63V-33867
                    1964 Studebaker Avanti R1 R-5364
                    1970 Avanti II RQA-0385
                    1981 Avanti II RQB-3304

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by DEEPNHOCK View Post

                      OK. I used the home as a buying and selling analogy.
                      You are on your own with your business decision.
                      Prayer will make you feel better, I guess.
                      Good luck.
                      Prayer will not only make me feel better, it is my Guidance. That’s the only way I know I’ll get it right. But thanks for the counterpoint.
                      Proud NON-CASO

                      I do not prize the word "cheap." It is not a badge of honor...it is a symbol of despair. ~ William McKinley

                      If it is decreed that I should go down, then let me go down linked with the truth - let me die in the advocacy of what is just and right.- Lincoln

                      GOD BLESS AMERICA

                      Ephesians 6:10-17
                      Romans 15:13
                      Deuteronomy 31:6
                      Proverbs 28:1

                      Illegitimi non carborundum

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Bob Andrews View Post

                        Prayer will not only make me feel better, it is my Guidance. That’s the only way I know I’ll get it right. But thanks for the counterpoint.
                        BA, are you near any Amish communities? The Amish mill their own lumber and even have their own sources for steel siding/roofing. And, cash talks!
                        sigpic
                        In the middle of MinneSTUDEa.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Milaca View Post

                          BA, are you near any Amish communities? The Amish mill their own lumber and even have their own sources for steel siding/roofing. And, cash talks!
                          I've never met any more honest folk. I've also never met any folk who drive a harder bargain. They aren't likely to give the English a below-market deal.

                          jack vines
                          PackardV8

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Milaca View Post

                            BA, are you near any Amish communities? The Amish mill their own lumber and even have their own sources for steel siding/roofing. And, cash talks!
                            I am. And, they do a lot of building in my area. I will be looking at thst possibility.
                            Proud NON-CASO

                            I do not prize the word "cheap." It is not a badge of honor...it is a symbol of despair. ~ William McKinley

                            If it is decreed that I should go down, then let me go down linked with the truth - let me die in the advocacy of what is just and right.- Lincoln

                            GOD BLESS AMERICA

                            Ephesians 6:10-17
                            Romans 15:13
                            Deuteronomy 31:6
                            Proverbs 28:1

                            Illegitimi non carborundum

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I built the house that we are living in now with styrofoam forms and cement. The forms have a cost, and it took 140 yards of cement, but the house has 11' thick walls and an R49 insulation value. Of coarse there is still wood involved in the trusses and roof sheating, but much less than a conventional build. The house is very cool in the summer and toasty warm in the winter. Some people are using them for shops, so that could be another option.

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X