N.A.D.A. Guide: Any accuracy in their classic car values?!?!

[JimC]

Hi guys,

I've been poking with the notion of buying another Studebaker (please don't tell my wife!), and as I'm looking at ads, I have come across several recently who use the NADA Guide as their source for pricing, as opposed to, you know, reality.

I find this highly frustrating, because at least in the vehicles I'm looking at (mostly Larks), their prices seem about twice the price that I actually see these cars selling for.

What are your thoughts on NADA? Are their numbers random guesses? Are they actually reasonable, and I'm just being stingy? My take is that you can't really put a value of a classic car in a book and expect it to be remotely accurate. Aside from the fact that 50+ years of aging means that no two classics are going to be exactly alike, there's also the fact that value is largely based on what someone will pay. Especially so in niche markets like orphan cars.

Okay, enough of this! [/rant]

[61Lark]

If our cars are actually worth what NADA claims how many people would have been able to buy their Studebaker?

Nick

[PackardV8]

I'm just being stingy

Yes, of course; we're all CASOs here and proud of it.

What are your thoughts on NADA? Are their numbers random guesses? Are they actually reasonable,

No. You already answered your own question.

50+ years of aging means that no two classics are going to be exactly alike,

Just accept the NADA Guide exists because some persist in the futile attempt to impose order on chaos. Any given Lark is worth what you are willing to pay for it there on that day. Nothing else really matters.

I find this highly frustrating, because at least in the vehicles I'm looking at (mostly Larks), their prices seem about twice the price that I actually see these cars selling for

Maybe, looking at it another way, you're trying to impose your/our CASO guide values on the marketplace. If the seller ends up taking half his asking price, you should be the one making that offer and driving home the new old Lark.

Bottom line, since the days of used camels, that's the way the market operates. Seller starts high, buyer offers low, sale happens somewhere in between or not at all.

If our cars are actually worth what NADA claims how many people would have been able to buy their Studebaker? Nick

FWIW, I find most sellers/owners consistently rate their cars at least one class too high. There are very, very few #1 Studes, not that many #2s.

jack vines

[karterfred88]

Remember NADA is for Dealers, not private party use. All of the "guides" are way on the high side, otherwise dealers wouldn't buy them to show a buyer. A dealer wants to get the greatest possible profit for his investment. My experience is from 38 years of claims handling and settling auto total losses (including collector cars) and I always had to read the fine print to people--price includes DEALER prep, mark-up etc. The old car guides always seem to hone in on the collector car dealer prices and the collector Auctions, forgetting the cars that didn't make reserve or were sold by private parties at half or less. NADA posts them on the web so that if you look at them you'll be more inclined to pay more for one "at a dealer". Most sellers never read the guidelines or fine print when pricing a older car. They forget that NADA stands for National Automobile Dealers Association, not FSBO. By professional standards most 50 year old cars with decent paint are 50 footers-not 20 footers. The 20 footers are a five year old body- off restos !!! Before the access to NADA on the web, prices were more resonable and people priced things more in line with the "real" world. Good luck on your search-remember if you find one of the high priced ones you like, don't be afraid to offer what you feel its worth to you. Leave the your phone number. I'm still getting calls from people I offered to buy an Avanti from a year ago--seems like they couldn't find anyone to pay the NADA price. Too bad I already bought one for a decent price.

[JDP]

NADA values are designed for retail prices for brick and mortar dealers, not sales between CASO's. The other factor is over estimating your cars condition compared to the NADA's i.e. the NADA average:

Average Retail Value
This vehicle would be in good condition overall. It could be an older restoration or a well-maintained original vehicle. Completely operable. The exterior paint, trim, and mechanics are presentable and serviceable inside and out. A "20-footer".

I feel my Cruiser Survivor was in exceptional condition, but is a NADA average car with a retail for a dealer in the 9K range and sold for over 6K to a private party who just outbid a dealer at that level. If a dealer was willing to pay north of 6K, he must have expected a decent profit.
That's one reason I have the ebay price guesses to show how big a range folks guess. The forum guessed in the 4-10K range for the Cruiser, and that's a pretty wide range for us "experts". You could say NADA is way low for a average Golden Hawk when one just sold for nearly 100K, or too high when a nicer one sold for 25K at York. It's just a guide, and can be high or low depending on the very few documented sales.

I'm a NADA adviser and try and correct obvious errors, but they put more weight on auction sales and reports from classic car dealers than my comments. I can try and convince them that R2 option is a 50% or more premium on Larks for example, but they have not changed it in 10 years. I still can't be sure of values myself, and I've been doing this for 50 years.

[55s]

We have a couple of members who contribute prices.

Issues:
(1) Many Studes are 3 or worse. (afterr all, it is a drivers club)(i.e. few 1s and 2s)
(2) There are high premiums paid for being in the right place, right time, right buyer
(3) The right buyer often means someone who had the car as a kid, or parents had one, so sentemental value is in
(4) not enough sales to substantiate - higher volumes of Ford and Chev sales help substantiate selling price

These are just a few. Ultimately, you need a willing buyer and seller to substantiate any price.

[JDP]

We have a couple of members who contribute prices.

Issues:
(1) Many Studes are 3 or worse. (afterr all, it is a drivers club)(i.e. few 1s and 2s)
(2) There are high premiums paid for being in the right place, right time, right buyer
(3) The right buyer often means someone who had the car as a kid, or parents had one, so sentemental value is in
(4) not enough sales to substantiate - higher volumes of Ford and Chev sales help substantiate selling price

These are just a few. Ultimately, you need a willing buyer and seller to substantiate any price.

Honestly, if you were a dealer and had any finned Hawk on the floor would you not post the 100K auction result to try and convince a consumer your Hawk is worth say 40K ? If a few dealers get that sort of money, and report it to NADA, than that is the new "value" in the guide. It does not mean you might still find one selling for 15K, or another selling for 75K.
My biggest frustration is trying to get them to raise values when needed. They still list excellent R2 GT's at 22K and I can't buy them for that and sold one privately for 35K that I feel was a bargain.

[rockne10]

Doesn't NADA still list a showroom condition '53 Coupe at $12,000? Someone doesn't have their ear to the phone!

[T-CAB]

NADA Guides are generally too high. I have been appraising cars for 20 years. As a Jack Vines indicated most people overrate their cars. I find that most "Mint" cars have rusty frames, chassis and engine compartments. I tend to use "Collector Car Market Review" more than the other guides. Their paper listing is not complete unfortunately. Another great source is the "Black Book". They have an online service that graphs the values.

T-cab